Rugby World Cup 2015 - Pool D Preview and Predictions

Canada:

Canada, somewhat unfairly, are ranked just one spot above Uruguay in the World Rugby rankings, and go into the groups with low expectations. Their big match comes against the side ranked one spot above them, Romania. Aaron Carpenter, Jebb Sinclair and Jamie Cudmore will be key figures if Canada are to secure the tightly contested game. Canadian rugby has been on the up, there is no denying that, and in Tyler Ardron and Jeff Hassler they have some pretty exciting youth players to get the nation hoping of at least one victory in the group. Despite their inexperience in comparison to Romania, I think they will pull off a good victory, and give the fans back home something to cheer about.

That game comes on the 6th of October, but before that there is one match in particular that the Canadians have their eye on. They know a victory against tier 1 sides is a very rare feat, and won't have much hop of a win against Ireland or France, but they will look at the game at Elland Road on the 26th of September and think they could give Italy a good run for their money. In the 7 times they have played the Azzurri, the Canadians have won twice, which isn't a great record but it is there to be improved upon. One thing holding the Canadians back is probably their run of form heading in to the World Cup. They did secure two results against Glasgow Warriors and Georgia, albeit narrowly, but the real woory is the thrashing they suffered at the hands of Fiji, and the 7 games lost in a row before the match against Glasgow, one of which includes a loss to Romania. I'm not expecting the Canadians to beat the Italians, but there is always the possibilty for an upset, this Canadian side did push Samoa all the way recently, losing by just one point, and if they play well they will have a chance, even though it will still be slim.

Predicted Finish: 4th in Pool D

France:

I'm going to shy away from the tired old cliché that you never know which French side is going to show up. I know exactly what side is going to turn up... and they are going to be the fighting, surprising France this time around. The first match against Italy is not about putting mountains of points on the board. If they can then that is great for them, but a scrappy victory will have the same effect. They need to win that first game and show some fight, because they are going to need it all again for the Ireland match. Canada and Romania will be regulation victories, and the France will beat the Italy by about 7-10 points, but the match against Ireland will be what they really want, as a second place finish leaves a match against New Zealand in the quarter-finals, and France aren't there yet as a squad to take on the All Blacks, even in a World Cup.

The match against Ireland will be crucial if France want to see the semi-finals this year, and I think they have what it takes, even against an Ireland side that has improved under Schmidt. Les Bleues haven't won since 2011 against the Irish, but on this World Cup stage, with the slight improvements we have seen since the 6 Nations and the fact that I'm unconvinced by Ireland away from home, I see the French coming away as winners. Fofana, Huget and Naikataci will need to perform well not only in the game against the Irish but also throughout the tournament, but this is the game where all three can truly leave their mark, and come away with an impressive victory. It won't be by much, but it doesn't need to be.

Along with Fofana, Huget and Naikataci, the likes of Ben Arous, Dusautoir and Pape will be crucial for the French, and as they move in to a quarter-final against the Argentinians. They will need to show their power up front to overcome Los Pumas, but they will be able to if they have overcome the Irish and Italians to get to this stage. Following on from this game is a match against the hosts, England. The French secured one victory over the English in a World Cup warm-up match, but the English looked seriously off the pace and then beat them the following week in a more convincing manner. The English at home will be too much for the French, as they were in the 6 Nations and in the warm-up match, but the French can be very happy with a semi-final finish at this year's World Cup. It all comes down to topping their group. If they do that, I think they will finish 4th, suffering a loss to either South Africa or Australia in the 3rd Place Playoff.

Predicted Finish: 4th

Ireland:

Irish fans will be disappointed I only have them down as quarter-finalists this year, especially after their form in the past year. Ireland away from home have been unconvincing in my eyes. They have got some good results, such as in 2014 with their their first win in Paris against the French since 1972 for example, but I think that said more about the French side on the day than the Irish side. It took them until 60th minute against Italy to get anything going in the 6 Nations this year and they lost to a Welsh side that England buried at the Millenium Stadium. It may not seem like much, but the Irish away performances have been unconvincing, and that is the primary reason I think they will struggle at the World Cup this year. 

They have some very good players, from the half back pairing of Murray and Sexton to the powerful forwards POC, POM, Toner, O'Brien, Heaslip and Henderson, there is real quality and brilliant strength in that Irish side. It sort of falls apart nowadays when you get outside Sexton though. Other than Rob Kearney, the guys outside the fly-half have yet to consistently convince me that they have the international quality to make it to the final. What is key for Ireland is trying to top their group and stay out of New Zealand's way in the draw. If they do that then a match against England awaits them in the semis, and although they will lose it, it will be one heck of a spectacle. A passionate and well-matched game with the home side taking the spoils. The way I see it happening though is a quarter-final loss to the Kiwis, a side that just pipped the Irish the last time they played. If they come through that game then they could go all the way, but New Zealand will likely edge them out again, as this time the Irish don't have that home advantage they need. \Quarters or semis for the Irish is what my crystal ball shows me, but with a French side improving and looking to hit their World Cup form, the Irish look destined for a quarter-final loss to the All Blacks.

Predicted Finish: Quarter-Finals

Italy:

The question on everyone's lips is "Can Italy play without Sergio Parisse?" We will find out soon enough in their tough opening game against France. We've seen them upset the French a couple of times in the past few years, but without their talisman it looks like an impossible task. He will feature soon for Italy, but not seen enough. Even without him for the match against France, the Italians are an experienced side, Masi, Zanni, Bergamasco and Castrogiovanni all have over 90 caps, and have experienced beating the French before. Whilst they have that experience, what they are missing, as always, is a good half-back combination to manage the game properly, kick well and slot the points over. Tomasso Allan will need a few big performances if Italy are to get a win against a big side. The Ireland match is out of the question, we saw how Ireland beat them by 30 points even when they only turned up 60 minutes in. They don't look at all likely to beat France either, as they lost 0-29 to the French, at home the last time they played one another. Still, the Italians will be looking for victories against Romania and Canada, and whilst they will both pose a challenge, the Italians should have the international experience to see them off and at least put in a respectable showing this year.

Predicted Finish: 3rd in Pool D

Romania:

Romania will be targeting the team ranked below them in the pool for their victory of the campaign, Canada. They may even have heady dreams of a win against the Italians. In reality however, I see this being a barren World Cup for the Romanian side which consists mostly of players playing their club rugby in Romania. There are some standout players though, you only have to look to Fercu of Saracens and Ion of Perpignan to see there is a half-decent level of rugby there, but comparing this squad to the Canadian one it becomes clear that Canada have the upper hand, and will climb above the Romanians after this World Cup. Not a good World Cup in store for the Romanians sadly, as they will likely finish bottom of their pool.

Predicted Finish: 5th in Pool D

Who Will Win Pool D?