Thursday 4 February 2016

6 Nations 2016 - Key Men and Predictions

England:


With a change in head coach, how can England bounce back from a horribly disappointing World Cup campaign? Well, it starts with the right team selection, something Stuart Lancaster got so drastically wrong against Wales in the RWC. The future of English rugby is knocking on Eddie Jones’s door and he’d be foolish to ignore it. This isn’t suggesting that every youngster should start, but Beaumont will certainly be ready to play his part, and the likes of Itoje, Daly, Kvesic should all start given their form and the solutions they provide to England’s weaknesses in the World Cup. Our suggested starting lineup for the Scotland match suggests the direction Jones should go in, and if it wasn’t for Hartley being named captain we would very likely have seen Jamie George in that hooker spot. However, because the infamous New Zealand born Dylan Hartley is England’s captain, he will need to rise to the occasion and will be a key man for the men in white throughout this campaign. Any stupid penalties or any cards and the world gets to laugh at him and the England management. Good discipline will be so vital throughout this tournament.




Other key players for England will be Joe Launchbury, who has the chance to assert himself as one of the best locks in world rugby, Billy Vunipola, who was one of few players to turn up for England in the World Cup, Matt Kvesic, who has the ideal opportunity to cement the 7 shirt by highlighting what England have missed over the past few years, and finally Owen Farrell, who will look to carry his scintillating form at club rugby into this tournament, and keep George Ford at bay. For England to go and win this tournament with an upheaval in coaches and off the back of poor international form is unlikely, especially against a Welsh side that got the better of them at Twickenham late last year, and an Irish side that they have struggled to beat in the 6 Nations for the past couple of years. 3rd is a realistic spot to build upon for Eddie Jones’s men, although even that will be threatened by a potentially rejuvenated French side. Maybe they can spring a surprise, but expectations are at an all-time low after an early pool stage exit at their own RWC.

Key Men: Dylan Hartley, Joe Launchbury, Owen Farrell
Prediction: 3rd





France:



As an Englishman living in France I feel that I can reliably report back that the French are feeling pretty confident with new head coach Guy Novès at the helm. Finishing 4th three times and 6th once under PSA made the French fans very unhappy, but with new management and some exciting players they will hope to take down one of the three sides that have consistently come above them, England, Ireland and Wales. If Novès can replicate his success with Toulous on a national scale then the bigger boys will be scared. It is quite the mental barrier to break down though, and they will look to come flying out at the start against Italy to get them off to a perfect start.They will also be confident of beating the Scots once again and therefore secure 4th position, but will look to do so with good performances, unlike what was seen under PSA, and hopefully this 4th place won't be so demoralising as the last few. They can get really start to turn this squad around now and introduce young and exciting players such as Sébastien Bézy with guidance from new captain Guirado.

Key Men: Eddy Ben Arous, Sébastien Bézy, Jules Plisson
Prediction: 4th





Ireland: 


A lot of talk from the Irish saying this 6 Nations has little importance, which is exactly what we heard last year, but maybe there is a bit more truth to it this time. The Irish aren't as confident as they were in the 2015 6 Nations, coming off a defeat to Argentina is a slightly different feeling to coming off an historic victory over South Africa. However, there is still plenty of quality in that Irish squad, plenty of experience, and, as always, good coaching. It'll be nice to see McCloskey get a run out at some stage, and once again this post World Cup 6 Nations should be used to statr blooding in the youngsters and preparing for the future. Schmidt has given the Irish fans lots of hope over the past few years, and a couple of 6 Nations championships to boot. Can he do it again? Yes, yes he can, but it'll be difficult. This side that has overcome England for the past couple of years need to continue what they have done against the men in white, and mirror the way that the English have dismantled the Welsh in the past two 6 Nations tournaments. The men in red appear to be the big obstacle in the way of the Irish, and by the way they fell short of the Welsh last year suggests that they could lose to Warrenball one more time.With the England and French sides in transition, it is Gatland's men that Schmidt should be focussed on, and I'm not sure they'll overcome them.

Key Men: Rory Best, Sean O'Brien, Jonny Sexton
Prediction: 2nd




Italy:



Unlikely to be a memorable 6 Nations for the Italians, and it will be mighty tough for them to scrape a victory over the Scottish again. Maybe they can hope for a capitulation of the French in the opening match, but realistically it is going to be more of the same, Sergio Parisse dragging his players through the match and picking up a couple of man of the match awards along the way. Clearly this a period of transition for the Italians too, with 10 uncapped players getting called up. Will they be able to add anything to this side? I doubt it will come to anything this year, however it could be a different story in a couple of years time.

Key Men: Sergio Parisse, Edoardo Gori, Leonardo Ghiraldini
Prediction: 6th



Scotland:
Good news for the Scottish fans, this year's tournament will be better than last year's. The bad news is that it won't be as good as they would hope after the World Cup. Scotland were the closest NH side to a semi-final, yet only just scraped out of the group before going on to once again fail to close out a game. That was the story of last year's six nations and I fear it could be the same again. I predicted them to finish in 4th last year because the improvement they had made under Cotter was clear, but sadly it wasn't reflected in their results, and they were so, so poor, and had it not been for the unfair omission of Alesana Tuilagi in the World Cup, or if Japan had been fully fit, then Scotland would have joined England in an early exit. We have a fairly long article about their exit and overall performance in the World Cup here, but concisely we'll just say it was very flattering. It is because of this I feel like they will certainly not be breaking the top 3 this year, but will enjoy a good scrap with France who were woeful against the Kiwis. If France come out flying against Italy then Scotland will have a mighty tough task to escape 5th place, even if the quality of their rugby deserves more.



Key Men: Jonny Gray, Mark Bennett, Greig Laidlaw
Prediction: 5th





Wales:


Wales are historically very strong in the post-World Cup 6 Nations, having secured Grand Slam in both 2008 and 2012, and I expect no less than an equally strong performance this time round. Having conquered the Irish in last year's 6 Nations and beaten the English at Twickenham in the World Cup, there is no reason why the Welsh won't fancy themselves to come out on top of the pile one again. Only notable absentees are Halfpenny and Webb, but they are equally as strong, if not stronger, with Williams and Davies. Wales can win this tournament and win well, and I feel that they will win their opening fixture against Ireland and set the tone for a very strong campaign, as long as they keep Cuthbert as far away from the starting XV as possible. Warren Gatland and his coaches will ensure that this Wales team is primed and ready to take home the championship this year, led by a formidable back row and the old guard of AWJ and Jamie Roberts, with the power of George North and Jonathan Davies to boot. Expect the men in red to get their hands on this year's trophy.

Key Men: Dan Biggar, Sam Warburton, Jamie Roberts
Prediction: 1st
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