Rugby World Cup 2015 - Pool A Preview and Predictions

Australia:

The Australians have to be confident going in to this World Cup, given the good 2015 they have had, in which they toppled both the South Africans and New Zealand. They are actually the only side in world rugby that can say they have beaten both of those teams in the same year since England did back in 2003. When it comes to the immediate threat of the pool stages, the Australians will certainly be wary of both England and Wales, but know full well that they can beat the Welsh, as they have done on every occasion since 2008, and would therefore be very disappointed by an early pool stage exit. 

The game against England will be a very different beast to that of the Welsh game as Australia have lost 4 of their last 5 against the men in white, with both teams claiming an away victory in that time period. However, the Australians look reinvigorated now, and will be ready to show Lancaster's men how they improved since their last meeting, and Pocock and Hooper could lay the foundations for a very strong performance not only in the England game, but in the whole of the World Cup. They cause problems for the very best of teams, and Australia will be relying on their back row to take the game to the opposition and drag them through the tough games. 

Two more players that will prove instrumental in Australia's World Cup performance are Drew Mitchell and Matt Giteau, who had a law specially made for them to facilitate their return to international rugby. The way they have been a force in Europe will certainly give the Aussies that bit more confidence in the harder games, especially against Northern Hemisphere opposition. Still, that England match in the pool in front of a Twickenham crowd is going to be tough for anyone to overcome, so it looks as if Australia will narrowly lose that game to England, and finish second in the group, brushing aside Uruguay and beating Fiji with relative ease.

In all likelihood, this sets up a quarter-final clash with a South African side that Australia have recently beaten, and have overcome twice out of three times since 2014, although they have been very close encounters, and were won at home, whilst the lost game was a 14 point victory to South Africa in Cape Town. It will be tough to call on neutral ground, but if South Africa win all their games in the pools as expected, then they will most likely come out on top in a closely fought, very intense match. The bizarre manner in which the pools have worked out means that Australia, who are ranked second in the world, could very well see themselves eliminated from the World Cup in the quarter-finals. Whilst that seems disappointing, I don't think many Australians will feel to appalled if their side loses to South Africa, although it is certainly not a foregone conclusion as the Australians have recently shown, and it has the makings of an absolute thriller.

If Australia top the pool, beating the Welsh and the English, then we will probably see the first ever New Zealand vs Australia World Cup Final. That would also be a stunning spectacle for the Rugby World, although you'd have to say that, with New Zealand being the best in the world, it is the kiwis that will come though, especially given the last result between the two teams.

Predicted Finish: Quarter-Finals

England:

Can a good England side turn great in this home World Cup? They are undoubtedly skilled, certainly powerful, and have a bit of pace out wide, but nobody would make the claim that the English are the best in the world right now. However, there is something to this team, a "je ne sais quois", which keeps England fans hoping. Hoping for a miracle, hoping for an upset, hoping for the World Cup. In order to really create the buzz though, they have to perform in the pool stages and if they want to really get the belief of the country, they need a convincing win against Wales.

They start with a physical battle against Fiji though, a match that will allow them to show off a bit of what is to come, but they can not take it lightly as the Welsh know all too well. It is going to be the match on the 26th of September that will give the English hope. The victory should come no matter what, and if it doesn't then that will be disastrous for Lancaster and his men, but they will not be looking to scrape it by 2 or 3 points. No, they need a big win to really get that Sweet Chariot Swinging Low. Having won in Wales the last time they played, and won at home the year before that, the English will want a scoreline similar to the 29-18 victory of 2014. Wales come in having beaten Ireland recently, as do England, but Halfpenny's penalties were decisive in that game, and unfortunately he will be missing for this World Cup. The last time England played Wales, the injury-hit English side managed to come out on top by 5 points, yet it felt more comfortable than that. Now that they are boasting Lancaster's vision of a close to full English side, England need to set the tone for their World Cup by beating Wales convincingly and sending a message to the other big teams.

The other big match for England is the game against Australia, and this English side know that they can beat the Aussies, as they have done 4 of the last 5 times they have played them, yet they haven't played an Australian side lately that looks as good and accomplished as this one, so this is definitely a game where England would take a gritty and tough win. Given the recent record between the two sides and the home advantage, we are looking at another England victory here, although England's back row will need a big game to counteract the Australian power in this department. This game is huge as the loser will most likely face South Africa and face a disappointing early exit. England in particular will fear this possibility, the chance of playing a side that they have not beaten since 2005.

After topping the pool England would likely face Scotland (if they can turn performances into results) or Samoa and maybe even the USA. Any of these games should prove regulation for the home side however, especially coming out of the tough pool A. Again, a convincing win is what England need here, and it is likely to come, but they need to keep the momentum up, and keep the crowd and the country singing and cheering. There can be no moment where the fans doubt the team, as England need all the support that they can get. 

If England were to finish second in the group, a probable fixture against South Africa would send them home early, and would be a big failure for Lancaster's side. Topping the pool is essential, as it means that England's run can last much longer.

The semi-final for an England side at home should be a victory for the men in white, whether it is against Ireland, France or Argentina. They have won their most recent games against all 3, and although Argentina are a slightly different beast to the side that England comfortably beat with their second XV, if they can overcome the Welsh and the Aussies then none of these sides will scare the English. They have tasted defeat this year against both the French and the Irish, but know at home that they can produce stunning rugby to beat the French and they will certainly be confident of a result at home against the Irish. I have a bit more to say on the Irish team's ability to play away from home under Joe Schmidt, but that will be in the Ireland section. 

Amazingly my completely unbiased predictions (I am trying, I promise) have taken England to the final, where they will meet New Zealand or South Africa. This may appear like a slightly rogue choice, but there is a very real possibility that England would prefer a match against the Kiwis, a side that they beat in 2012, lost to by one point, in New Zealand, in  mid-2014 and by just 3 in late 2014 at home, as opposed to a South African side that have got the better of them for 10 straight years. The occasion could well be perfect for England to replicate that stunning 2012 victory, even without Manu Tuilagi, and I don't want to say it, but my heart won't let me type anything else.

Predicted Finish: Champions

Fiji:

Fiji go into the "Pool of Death" as 4th favourites, but nobody will expect an easy game from the typically physical Fijian side. Like the rest of the group, they will look to swat aside the Uruguayans, and although they have a very tough opening game against the English, which they could lose by 20-30 points, success for Fiji would be winning 2 games in this pool, and that second win would most likely come against the Welsh. It is however unlikely to happen, but they did comprehensively beat Samoa recently, and get to face Australia with a World Cup game under their belt already, whilst the Aussies will have the Fijians as their first game.

If the Fijians are to cause any upsets, they will be looking to Vereniki Goneva as the source of their tries. The guys is an absolute beast, his power and pace will frighten even the most experienced of opponents, and the Fijians will look to him when they go forward. 

Unfortunately a quarter-final place is out of reach for the Fijians this time around, and they will probably go home with one win under their belt. It is a shame that we won't be able to see more of the Fijians this time around, and that the pacific island team that is most likely to make it to the next round is in fact the second-best side in the Pacific Isles, Samoa.

Predicted Finish: 4th in Pool A

Uruguay:

Ranked 19th in the world, Uruguay will treasure every point they score in their impossibly mammoth task of even competing with any of the sides in this pool. There can be no success for them sadly at this year's RWC, but conversely there will be no failure. They will turn up, give it their all, and head back happy to have been a part of it. 

Predicted Finish: 5th in Pool A

Wales:

Warren Gatland's men have a very big challenge ahead of them at this year's Rugby World Cup. England and Australia are two of the worst opponents that Wales could have drawn. South Africa and Ireland would have been more desirable. But no, sadly for the Welsh they have a side they can't beat at Twickenham and a side they can't beat. 

The game against England would be hard enough at the Millenium Stadium, as Wales found out in the 6 Nations, and that was against an injury-struck side, yet coming to Twickenham at World Cup time will be a colossal challenge, and yet the Welsh know that they do have a chance of winning this game. It isn't a big one, but they have something that England don't have, and that is experience. They are up against a lot of young players, and they will look to players such as Jamie Roberts, a British & Irish Lion, to lead them out there and give it everything they have. Roberts will be crucial but perhaps more important will be the role of Tipuric in the game. He was fantastic for Wales against Ireland, and for me he has to start for Wales, even ahead of Sam Warburton. Sometimes losing your talismanic players actually makes you a stronger side, and I feel this is equally relevant in Leigh Halfpenny's case. Liam Williams is a brilliant attacker, better than Leigh, and Biggar has a kick not far off the quality of the gold-booted Halfpenny. The loss of their fullback makes Wales a stronger side, and replacing Warburton with Tipuric does as well. The loss of Webb however will be a big blow to Wales. As if the task of facing the English and the Aussies wasn't big enough, they have lost one of the best scrum-halves in the Northern Hemisphere. 

If experience is the key to a Welsh challenge against the English, then... well... I don't think Wales have anything to offer against the Australians. There is no way they can combat the side from down under, and I can't see anything but a loss. Give Wales any other team, barring the Kiwis, and there is hope, but none against the green and gold of Australia.

It would be a huge success for this Welsh side to progress from the group, and they'd love it even more if it meant knocking England out of their own World Cup, but if they were to, as expected, finish in 3rd place, it couldn't be deemed a failure. A failure would be 3 losses in the pool stage, and Wales will be sure to put on a big performance against the Fijians to eliminate any possibility of this.

Were Wales to secure a victory against England, I'm not considering the possibility of a win against the Australians for similar reasons as top why England can't beat South Africa, then they could finish second and would be the only side in this group that would quite likely progress through the quarter-finals after finishing second. That game would only set-up a game with New Zealand which they would most likely lose, but a semi-final place from this group would be a brilliant moment for Wales. Therefore, second place has to be the goal for Wales, and they will throw everything they have in to the English game, hoping that experience will overcome the home advantage. It just seems a step too far for Wales at this moment in time.

Predicted Finish: 3rd in Pool A

Who Will Win Pool A?