South Africa vs New Zealand - RWC 2015 Semi-Final Prediction

The first game of the all Southern-Hemisphere semi-finals is, given the nature of this World Cup so far, going to be a thrilling encounter. The best in the world come up against a side that lost their first game of the tournament to Japan, and yet we know it will be a hard-fought and close contest, as most South Africa vs New Zealand games are. The last three matches between the two sides have come within 10 poins, South Africa winning one of them, and on neutral ground in what is likely to be slightly favourable to the South Africans, you can be sure of a very close match. South Africa have had this match in their sights for 3 years, and both teams know almost everything about the other. It will be unforgettable.



First off, let's talk about New Zealand and their quarter-final. Although the French were awful last weekend, it is important to remember how clinical New Zealand were, and for the first time in this tournament the work at the breakdown was brilliant, the passing was deadly accurate and the decision making let the All Blacks be as ruthless as possible. An underwhelming start to the tournament could have been put right in that last game, and we may be seeing the All Blacks hitting form at just the right time. The Kiwis will be apprehensive when it comes to the tries they have conceded in this tournament, and they will know that their defence will have to be rock solid against the South Africans on Saturday. If they give them an early try and a way into the game, the whole contest becomes an awful lot harder. The defence in the midfield will be a particular focus for New Zealand, they need to make sure De Allende, Kriel and Pollard can't break through. If they can do this, they take away a certain physicality to the Springboks attack, and much like nullifying Roberts and Davies for Wales, when a team does this it takes away the main threat of the opposition team and will leave them scrambling for other options. One thing you can be certain of, is that it will be a very physical game.

South Africa have been employing an almost Warrenball tactic this World Cup, failing to utilise their width and keeping everything tucked up in the midfield. They will not beat New Zealand  if they play in this way. They need to use the speed of their players out wide and give them as much space as possible to run into. In many ways Vermeulen could be crucial in this sense. We saw how effective he was in the quarters, and his ability to pick the ball up, carry it well and then offload could let South Africa return to the style of play they had when he wasn't injured, a more dynamic style that allows the players in the wider channels to attack more freely. On the defensive side, when looking at what the Kiwis did against France, it comes right back down to the basics. The Saffas have to make their tackles, they need to prevent that deadly Kiwi offloading, and they need to maintain their shape. It sounds as simple as anything, but against New Zealand nothing is simple, as Julian Savea showed the French team with his Lomu-like charge through 3 men. In a game where South Africa need to nail the basics, especially if it rains on Saturday, Schalk Burger and Willie Le Roux will really need to step their games up. The whole team needs to step their game up really, and the coaches need to show no fear and encourage a style of play that uses the pace out wide. Kriel needs the ball in his hands, and from there South Africa can use joint record try scoring Bryan Habana to his full effectiveness.

It looks as this will be another New Zealand win, they are a more skilled side, a more precise side, and they aren't afraid to spread the ball out wide and use the likes of Save and Milner-Skudder. If South Africa are to spring a surprise, they will need to revert to the style of play from 2/3 years ago that uses their pace and makes them a much more dangerous and exciting team. If New Zealand replicate their performance from last week, and are as precise and clinical as they were against the French, they could run away with it. However, this is a step-up in opposition and I think an 8 point victory is to be expected from the All Blacks.